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Monday, March 26, 2012

Bantam Draft Study - Part 2

A bit of a slow week until we really get in to it.  On the agenda this week are the USA U14 Nationals, which we will update when it begins on Wednesday.  Then on Friday, the first of four provincial U16 camps will begin in Winnipeg with the Hockey Manitoba U16 POE.

Draft Pick Breakdowns from last Bantam Draft

Medicine Hat1169.3151.564124032
Moose Jaw970.2161.672023310
Prince Albert1070.9168.963112430
Prince George1069.9151.354122321
Red Deer971.7163.343213401
Swift Current1270.8161.474135211

For reference, the average player picked was 70.5 inches tall and weighs 160.1 pounds. 

The team picking the biggest players is Seattle, at an average height of 73.2. Vancouver is second but almost a full inch shorter at 72.3 inches. 

Shortest team is Medicine Hat at 69.3, followed by Portland and Prince George at 69.9.  

When it comes to position, there were 129 forwards, 82 defensemen, and 21 goaltenders picked. 

For where the players came from, there were 52 from British Columbia, 80 from Alberta, 46 from Saskatchewan, 29 from Manitoba, and 25 from south of the 49th.

Interesting to see how some teams draft more heavily from their own region, and some draft from wherever. A few notes there:

 - Tri-City picked 4 kids from Alberta and the rest of their draft was American kids. The Americans usually are fairly loaded with Manitoba kids and not one single one was selected last year.

 - Regina, the provincial capital, did not pick a single kid from Saskatchewan.

 - Lethbridge's 6 Alberta kids included 4 from Calgary. 

 - Calgary minor hockey produced 24 draftees altogether. That's almost as many as the entire province of Manitoba.

Strange Facts
- Seven teams stayed totally away from picking a single player from Saskatchewan.  Those teams are:  Brandon, Regina, Tri City, Vancouver, Spokane, MH and Edmonton.  

- Four teams stayed way from picking a player from Manitoba.  Tri City, Spokane, Lethbridge and Red Deer.

- Brandon and Tri City both passed over BC without taking a single player.  Does Brandon find it to be a long shot getting a player to commit to playing way out east?

- SC, PG, Kamloops, Kelowna, Victoria and Seattle all selected a player from each province and at least one american player.

Skipping over the Prairies?
Victoria - 5
Vancouver - 4
Tri City - 4
Portland - 2

232 players picked. Of those, the numbers by birth month:

January: 41 (17.7%)
February: 36 (15.5%)
March: 32 (13.8%)
April: 34 (14.7%)
May: 25 (10.8%)
June: 13 (5.6%)
July: 13 (5.6%)
August: 14 (6.0%)
September: 5 (2.2%)
October: 10 (4.3%)
November: 4 (1.7%)
December: 5 (2.2%)

Overall, 62% of draft picks were born in the first four months (33%) of the year 1996. Assuming that births of baby boys were evenly spread over the 12 months of the year, you can see what a disadvantage the boys born in the last third of the year (10.3% of picks) had against the bigger, older boys from the early months.


Anonymous said...

But as they say.Size doesnt matter.Seattle picking the biggest players has been very successful for them?Portland going for smaller and skill.Interesting

Anonymous said...

Nice analysis.

This is why this draft is so flawed. These kids are not physically mature at 14-15. They are simply scooping the older, bigger players.

The future is skill not size. MH seems to have figured that out.

Seattle, good luck with the bigger older guys it seems to be really helping.

Anonymous said...

Interesting to see the analysis for goalies as it relates to size. There are a lot of great goalies at bantam who are not big and get passed over. In goal size matters but not at bantam and midget

Anonymous said...

look at this jonny evans kid not that tall but uses his speed and shot great prospect in the future

Anonymous said...

If you think Size dosent matter at the draft ask yourself why.The leading scorer at every spring The Leading scorer in Ambhl The best 16 year old at the u16s the only 16 year old with a whl playoff goal to his credit was past over 13 times before being picked. Im speaking of Point out of Calgary Now only 5ft4 at draft day To go 14th was considered a gamble Now 25lbs bigger 5ft8 he makes moosejaw look very smart. I hope teams learn that size doesnt matter skill Matters How big is Datsyk Crosby StLouis Stamkos

Anonymous said...

most teams carry quite a few smaller players.NHL does as well.But true.If a boy is exceptional at 5'4 and grows to 5'10.When size gap is closer,look out.Some boys who are good and reach their man bodies early really suffer when its even .

Anonymous said...

Size matters and always will. Big D-men and goalies are the norm in all major leagues of hockey. Body mass, muscle size and span of reach are factors that cant be taught. Same in Baseball, football, and BBall..... give your head a shake.

You see less talented big kids drafted ahead of skilled smaller kids year after year and always will. I'm not saying its right just saying thats the way it is. They will teach the big kid to skate faster and play smarter.

Have a look at any major team, they have very few d-men under 6 feet on the roster. Forwards are the exception but again if all skills are equal which kid do you think will be picked..... the bigger or the smaller.

Anonymous said...

Crosby is 6 ft and 200lbs, Stamkos is taller and 190. Datsyk is a only 5-11 and 200 lbs. Guess your version of small and mine are different. Well at least you got one right but he is the exception not the norm.